Halfway through a trip to China, Colin Austin is “de-boggling” — trying to separate real insights from quackery while looking for Chinese herbs, medicinal plants, and vegetables that people could grow in wicking beds to improve health. China is changing at a mind-boggling pace: soaring wealth, massive manufacturing regions, huge migration, and growing diabetes exist side by side. Along the way, odd clues—like bulk toilet paper purchases and frequent toilet trips—raise deeper questions about diet, soil, and what makes people healthy.
Introduction — De-Boggling
Well I am half way through my China trip — busy de-boggling. One aim of the trip was to look for Chinese herbs, medicinal plants and vegetables which people could grow in their wicking beds to improve their health.
I thought it may be difficult to find these plants but the opposite is happening. The problem is not to find the plants but rather to work out what is quackery and what is real — after all this is the country that believes eating rhino horn increases male potency, a fantasy of wishful thinking and envy. But more of that later — let’s get boggling.
I only know two things for sure about China: if you think you know what is going on you are probably wrong and suffering from a delusion, and in the remote possibility that you may just be right it makes no difference anyway as they will change everything in six months.
In my last newsletter I talked about the explosion in obesity and diabetes in China — how it has changed from a country in which obesity and diabetes were rare to one with reportedly the world’s largest problem with diabetes (just having pushed past India, which still pips the USA and Australia).
As I investigate I realised I needed to take a much broader view of what is happening in China. This can only be described as mind boggling and will have dramatic impact on the rest of the world.
That’s a Bit Weird — Pre-Science
Many of the great discoveries have come from someone noticing something out of the ordinary — just a bit weird — without any real science. Then later science cuts in with its classic processes: double blind experiments with statistical analysis to support or refute the observation.
Penicillin, stainless steel and high pressure steam engines are examples. I call this pre-science and was the process I am using. In reality it simply means looking around for anything unusual.
For example, I watched people come out of the supermarket and was struck by the huge amount of toilet paper they were buying. Was this significant? They may have been stocking up, but Chinese people tend to shop more frequently than in the West, so maybe something else was going on.
Then I noticed I was going to the toilet much more frequently than back home. I was living in a normal Chinese family home eating a pretty normal Chinese diet. Yes — Chinese food is a natural laxative so residence time is cut down. I could not help contrasting this with the US where every other advert seemed to be for a laxative.
Was this significant or not? In that classic phrase at the end of nearly every research paper — this needs further investigation.
Shenzhen — Not What You Expect
I am living in Shenzhen (just over the border from Hong Kong). I first visited Shenzhen some thirty years ago as Deng Xiaoping was opening up China. At that time it was little more than a rural village and pretty primitive.
It is now transformed into a mind boggling mega city. I walk out into the street and it is full of upmarket German prestige cars: BMWs, Audis, Porsches and Mercedes. There is the odd Bentley and yesterday there was an Aston Martin in our parking lot — maybe the real James Bond.
Not what you expect in a developing country.
China — The Upside: Stability, Education, and Scale
But China is not a developing country. It is a single country politically, but a sociologist would say it is an aggregate of multiple states, with each state bigger than most countries.
The history of China is one of conflict and corruption. Among the great achievements of the current Government is achieving peace and stability. I hear very little discussion about politics — people look to the Government to provide ongoing increases in prosperity. It will be interesting to see what happens as environmental issues like ubiquitous air pollution become better recognised.
In the early ‘opening up’ phase, technology was imported via overseas companies and joint ventures. But the era of relying on overseas technology is over. The Government has built an advanced education system pumping out qualified people, particularly engineers, on a vast scale. The pressure on my Chinese granddaughters (acquired when I married Xiulan) to perform in this environment is intense: work work work for the poor kids.
President Obama once discussed manufacturing Apple products in America with Steve Jobs. Steve commented he needed some 3,000 qualified production engineers for the iPhone — in China those positions were filled within a month, but he could never do that in the US.
Many Chinese gained experience in overseas firms and became entrepreneurs, designing and manufacturing innovative products in China. My acquired son and friends have set up a business making smart phones — I have one and prefer it to my Samsung S4.
The 150 km corridor along the Pearl River from Shenzhen to Guangzhou houses a population some four times that of Australia and contains much of the world’s electronic manufacturing industry, plus automotive and consumer goods. It brings in huge wealth, though not evenly distributed.
And it is only one region among many: Fujian, Shanghai, Beijing, Manchuria, Chongqing, each the size of a significant country. The manufacturing capacity is mind boggling and can supply the world with manufactured goods.
Roses and Honey — The Human Cost
But it is not all roses and honey. Many people have moved from rural areas to these regions but are legally classified as from another state, so they miss out on services and civil rights provided to locals (they even talk about having a passport). They often live in factory dormitories, work long hours for basic pay, and people begging or sleeping under bridges are common.
Local people call them migrants even though they are ethnic Han Chinese. This mass movement is the largest migration in human history — hundreds of millions of people. Throughout history, from the Romans to the British then the US and now China, wealthy countries have benefited from a pseudo slave population.
How China Builds Industries
The Government has tried to reduce the flow into mega-cities by establishing major industries in rural areas. The pharmaceutical industry is one example. This is not a simple incentive scheme: first build research and educational centres, then provide modern factories at nominal rents, remove legal and financial obstacles, and gear the financial system to assist companies aligned with Government plans.
This is more than the interventionism criticised by right wing politicians; it is cooperative pro-actionist on a grand scale. The banking system is owned or controlled by the Government, which gives it enormous leverage.
Personal Reflection — Risk in the West
This hits home hard. I built Australia’s leading exporter of technical software — profitable and successful — but I had to give $4 million of personal guarantees. When the first Iraq war started, our sales stopped and we could easily have been wiped out, leaving me personally bankrupt. It is difficult to repay $4 million by putting your cap out on the pavement and playing a violin outside a railway station.
My company was later absorbed into a giant American conglomerate with little benefit to Australia. It is easier for entrepreneurs in China; I meet overseas Chinese returning home because business is simpler. Companies fail in China too, but the penalties are less severe and entrepreneurs can start again.
Basket Case to World Leader — and What It Means
In thirty years China has gone from an economic basket case, recovering from one of the worst famines, to the second largest economy. Many in the West have little imagination about the next thirty years. Western political systems do not match China’s effective long-term planning.
Australia, with short electoral cycles and belief in market economics, shows little sign of long-term strategy. We will prosper by selling minerals and agricultural produce to China — but that is because it suits China. The Chinese Government is astute: it survives by satisfying Chinese needs, not Australian needs. That is our job.
The American system seems hostage to conglomeration and globalization. Massive global conglomerates can operate beyond law or use clout to shape laws. Europe has bogged itself down in ineffective bureaucracy. This leaves the door open for China to become the dominating economic power.
China — The Downside: Environment and Food
The negative side is environmental impact. Beijing’s air pollution is notorious, but the whole country is under threat from industrialization. China’s mountain ranges make it naturally beautiful, and it seems to be holding the battle in key regions, but there is a more immediate battle: food production.
When I sold my company I decided to spend my remaining time and energies on soil and water and the outcome — food production. In China we have far from a pretty sight.
Chinese Farming — Tradition Under Pressure
China has an agricultural system thousands of years old that would make many a permaculturist green with envy. But mass migration of the young and fit to cities creates a gaping hole, and China appears to be adopting some of the worst practices of Western agriculture, with damaging results.
This is not the full truth. There are areas like the Loess Plateau where traditional peasant farming caused major damage that has been reversed by enlightened soil conservation. Traditional farming is not automatically sustainable — I learned this in Ethiopia where poverty forced people to destroy trees and burn manure just to survive.
Markets, Chemicals, and “Does My Organic Come Second?”
Walk through Chinese markets and you might think talk of destructive farming is nonsense: vegetables are abundant and very fresh, often picked near mega-cities and delivered the same morning. This seems superior to Australia where food is picked early, shipped long distances, stored, then stored again in fridges.
Comparing Chinese produce to my home grown vegetables can make Chinese farming look better. I fight pests without toxic chemicals to protect soil biology, but cane toads, beneficial insects and companion planting are no match for toxic chemicals — at least in the short term based on initial appearance.
Even greater concern is what seems like excessive use of acidic nitrogen fertilisers creating hard crusty soils (even if you can call them soils). The Chinese might politely say this is none of my business — except for one reason: world food production.
World Food Production — Why China Matters Globally
My work on wicking beds began in Africa, trying to provide sustenance food in drought. I read we currently produce enough calories to feed double the world population, though this ignores micronutrients like vitamins, minerals and phytochemicals. The dominant cause of malnutrition is political instability and war. Number two is acquisition of prime land in developing countries for export crops like coffee and cocoa, often by multinationals.
China’s impact on manufacturing is obvious; its impact on food security may be equally significant. With 1.4 billion people, China will look to other countries to secure food supply. Its activities in Africa, South America and Australia should be no surprise, and its efforts to protect its own food supply will affect the global food supply.
It’s Not How Much Food — It’s What Is in It
China now has the largest population of diabetic sufferers. Obesity and diabetes are not just Western problems — they are global and linked to the food system. We have a surplus of energy components (fats, sugars, carbohydrates), and enough energy food to feed the world twice over. The “Armageddon press” warnings about shortages are often simplistic.
The real fear may be the lack of balance between energy and micronutrients — vitamins, minerals and phytochemicals. The challenge for future food is not quantity but producing food with the right nutrient balance in a sustainable way.
Humans Can Compensate — So What Are the Chinese Doing Right?
The debate often misses the body’s capacity to correct for a poor diet. There are tribes living on almost exclusively meat or fish who, in theory, should be unhealthy — yet appear fit. Many trace elements and phytochemicals are harmful in bulk, so why aren’t people dropping dead everywhere? Perhaps the body has elaborate systems to compensate — if it is allowed to.
Look at diabetes in China: a decade ago it was rare; now one in ten are suffering — a major disaster. But look differently: nine out of ten Chinese are fit and healthy with beautiful bodies (I have studied — in the name of science of course). So what are they doing right?
Could it relate to the bulk toilet paper purchases? I am stunned by how much food Chinese people can eat. At restaurants, course after course arrives: fish, beef, chicken, pork, multiple vegetable dishes, and unknown things I eat without looking. This huge pile of food — including the so called bad fats and carbohydrates — just disappears, yet the people around the table are typically not obese. So why?
Conclusion — Questions for the Next Newsletter
China is mind boggling: if you think you understand it you are probably wrong, and it will change in six months anyway. Food is equally mind boggling. At a personal level we face conflicting expert opinions that often miss the importance of soil. At a global level we have a food industry controlled by large corporations, overproducing food widely condemned as unhealthy while slowly destroying soil nutrient value.
Will I gain more insights during my next month in China? Will I find, despite my skepticism, a super-plant that lets people eat as much as they like of whatever they like? Will I find out how the majority remain fit, slim and healthy despite diets experts would condemn? Will I find clues to an agricultural system that feeds the world with healthy food without destroying soils?
Will I be able to de-boggle my mind to present effective answers in my next newsletter?
All I know for sure is that life is never dull in China.
Colin Austin — © 24 April 2014. Reproduction allowed with source acknowledgment; commercial use requires a license.
