This article looks thirty years ahead and argues that the next major shift in society will be driven by environmental services rather than manufactured products. It explains why food, soil, carbon, and health problems are linked, why storing carbon in soil is more practical than storing it underground, and why trees alone cannot solve the problem. It introduces wicking beds as a soil-regeneration technology and outlines the “integrator” model needed to make large-scale change workable.
Introduction
Thirty years ago it would have sounded absurd to suggest that the most powerful companies in the world would not make cars, steel, or oil, but would instead sell services based on information. Yet companies like Apple, Google, and Facebook now dominate the global economy.
I want to look thirty years ahead again and make another prediction. I suggest that the next wave of large and influential organisations will earn their living by managing the environment. They will not mainly manufacture products. They will provide services that deal with food, water, waste, soil, and carbon.
This may sound unlikely, but the argument is practical and based on known technology. The pressure driving this change is real, growing, and unavoidable.
Why Environmental Pressure Is Increasing
Thirty years ago, roughly two billion people lived an industrial lifestyle, mainly in Europe and North America. About three billion lived a more traditional or subsistence lifestyle, which effectively provided environmental services to the industrial world.
Today that balance has shifted. Around five billion people now live an industrial lifestyle, and only about two billion live a subsistence lifestyle. In the next thirty years, the expectation is that around eight billion people will live industrial lives, with perhaps only one billion remaining outside that system.
This represents an unprecedented increase in pressure on land, water, soil, and climate. Humanity has never experienced this level of demand before. But humans are adaptable, and the challenge is to apply intelligence and technology rather than panic.
Food Supply and the Soil Problem
The green revolution, based on improved genetics, fertilisers, and irrigation, has given the world a temporary surplus of food. However, it has done so by degrading soil biology. We are mining soil rather than regenerating it. Destroyed soil biology reduces the soil’s ability to recycle nutrients, retain water, and rebuild structure. This is not sustainable. The encouraging point is that this is not an unsolved problem. The technology to rebuild soil already exists.
Hunger today is rarely a failure of food production. It is usually a failure of access to technology, education, and capital. That makes it a social and political problem rather than a technical one.
Carbon, Climate, and Missed Opportunities
On top of food issues, we face rising carbon dioxide emissions and growing health problems such as obesity and diabetes. These challenges are often presented as inevitable disasters.
But the same situation can be viewed differently. It represents a major opportunity for new organisations to grow by solving real problems. History shows that large companies emerge where there is sustained demand for practical solutions.
Food Quality Matters
Food discussions usually focus on quantity, but quality is just as important. In many food-focused cultures, such as China, freshness and variety are highly valued, and obesity rates remain lower than in many Western countries.
Good food comes from good soil. Good soil comes from active biology, and that biology depends on carbon.
Ironically, carbon is now treated only as a waste product. Huge sums are spent trying to capture carbon dioxide from power stations and bury it underground. Meanwhile, the much simpler option of storing carbon in soil has received far less attention.
How Much Carbon Can Soil Store?
Soil has an enormous potential capacity to store carbon. Even conservative estimates show that soil could hold many times the carbon currently added to the atmosphere each year. If only a fraction of global land area were used to increase soil carbon to modest depths, the total storage capacity would reach into the thousands of gigatonnes. This does not mean the problem disappears overnight, but it could buy time while other technologies mature.
The real challenges are practical: getting carbon into the soil and keeping it there.
Trees Help, But They Are Not Enough
Trees absorb large amounts of carbon, and seasonal drops in atmospheric carbon dioxide confirm this. This has led to the popular idea that planting trees will solve the problem. The missing detail is decay. Most carbon absorbed by trees is eventually released back into the atmosphere as vegetation decomposes. If absorption alone solved the problem, emissions would not matter.
The real challenge is preventing carbon from returning to the atmosphere. That requires storing carbon in stable forms, particularly in soil.
Why Wicking Beds Matter
Wicking beds were designed to regenerate soil. Soil is built by biology, especially fungi. Bacteria break down organic matter quickly but release large amounts of carbon dioxide. Fungi build long-term soil structure and store carbon, but they require stable moisture.
Wicking beds maintain moisture in the root zone, creating ideal conditions for fungi, including mycorrhizal fungi. These fungi exchange nutrients with plants and extract minerals from materials that roots alone cannot access. Fungi can live for long periods and contain large amounts of carbon. By supporting fungal systems, wicking beds embed carbon into soil rather than releasing it back into the air.
Carbon Storage Is Gradual
Carbon capture in soil is not instant. It occurs over years or decades. Initial rates can be high and then decline as systems stabilise. The key point is not speed, but consistency. Wicking beds support steady carbon capture while simultaneously improving soil health and food production.
From Gardening Tool to System Change
Using wicking beds at scale is not just a technical issue. It is an organisational and political challenge. Existing carbon rules were designed for forestry, not soil. Concepts such as “additionality” and “permanence” work poorly for soil systems. Farmers are effectively penalised for improving soil voluntarily, and permanence requirements are unrealistic at the individual farm level.
The Integrator Model
A practical solution is the integrator model. Rather than dealing with individual farms, an integrator manages many farms as a group. Farmers are paid for adopting soil-building practices such as wicking beds. The integrator handles reporting, buffers risk, and demonstrates overall carbon sequestration across the system. This approach reduces administrative burden and makes soil carbon workable within existing frameworks.
Beyond Carbon Accounting
The integrator’s role extends beyond carbon credits. It can manage organic waste, water reuse, soil inputs, and food distribution. Like modern technology companies, the integrator provides services rather than manufacturing products. Its value lies in coordination, expertise, and scale.
Green Fertiliser, Not Green Waste
Large-scale soil regeneration requires organic material, referred to here as green fertiliser. Some can be grown on farms, but large-scale impact requires additional sources. Urban areas produce enormous volumes of organic waste. With proper handling, this waste can be converted into green fertiliser without contaminating food systems.
The City of the Future
Rapidly built cities such as Shenzhen provide a glimpse of future urban design. These cities integrate vegetation throughout living spaces, improving liveability and social stability. Parks, green corridors, and recreational areas do more than beautify cities. They also provide biomass that can be recycled into soil systems.
Waste as a Managed Resource
Cities generate waste that is currently treated as a liability. Direct use on farms is often rejected for health reasons, and rightly so. A safer approach is to use urban waste to grow non-food vegetation in controlled systems. That biomass then becomes green fertiliser for food production elsewhere.
What the Integrator Provides
The integrator can offer services to local governments, including waste management, water reuse, and land rehabilitation. Downstream, it supplies green fertiliser and supports farmers. Upstream, it helps market high-quality food grown from regenerated soil. Food is no longer just fuel. It is cultural, social, and experiential. High-quality produce creates additional value.
Moving Beyond Doom and Gloom
Environmental debates often frame the future as sacrifice and loss. This is misleading. Productivity has never been higher. The challenge is not producing less, but producing differently, within environmental limits rather than financial ones.
Lessons from History
Environmental crises are not new. When cholera struck London, society responded by building sewer systems. The solution was engineering, not moralising. The same approach applies today. The question is not whether change is needed, but how to design systems that work.
Conclusion
The next great change will not be a single invention. It will be a shift in how society organises food, soil, waste, and carbon. Soil carbon offers one of the most practical levers available. Wicking beds support soil biology, embed carbon, improve food quality, and work at both small and large scales. The integrator model provides a structure to make this workable, creating the foundation for a new class of environmental service organisations.
Download ‘The Next Great Change: Soil Carbon, Wicking Beds, and the Future of Food’ (full PDF)
